A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
